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EVIDENCE STUDIES · NO. 003 · 2026-11-06

In September 2026, the Selic target was 13.75% and 12-month IPCA inflation 4.58%: a real rate of 8.77% a year, net of past inflation.

Five numbers that go into any budget: interest rate, inflation, real rate, unemployment and the dollar, read from Central Bank series with SHA-256, up to September 2026, and compared with twelve months earlier. There is no forecast: the study shows the starting point for 2027.

Author
Thiago Holtz, Reveno Evidence
Published
Data
Central Bank of Brazil: SGS (series 432, 433, 1 and 24369)
License
CC BY 4.0

The numbers

  1. 8.77%

    ex post real rate in September 2026: Selic target of 13.75% net of 12-month IPCA. Twelve months earlier, 9.34%.

    Derived See Fig. 1

  2. 4.58%

    12-month IPCA up to September 2026; −0.60 point(s) against twelve months earlier (5.17%).

    Derived See Fig. 1

  3. 5.2%

    unemployment in the rolling quarter ending in September 2026, against 5.6% twelve months earlier. The lowest value in the window was 5.1%, in December 2025.

    Derived See Fig. 1

  4. R$ 5.14

    average PTAX dollar in September 2026, −4.1% in twelve months. Latest daily value: R$ 5.4212, on 2026-10-30.

    Derived See Fig. 1

1. Five years in four panels

Each panel has its own scale. Hover or use the arrow keys to read each month. The dashed line marks twelve months before the last month.

Fig. 1
Interest rate, inflation, unemployment and the dollar, month by monthFour monthly panels from October 2022 to September 2026: Selic target and 12-month IPCA, ex post real rate, unemployment and dollar. Equivalent table on the page.Interest rate, inflation, unemployment and the dollar, month bymonthSelic target at month end, 12-month IPCA, ex post real rate, unemployment (rollingquarter) and monthly average PTAX dollar.Evidence state: OBSERVED in Central Bank series; 12-month IPCA and real rate DERIVED.Selic target and 12-month IPCA (% a year)051015Oct 22Sep 24Sep 26Selic target · Oct 22: 13.75%Selic target · Nov 22: 13.75%Selic target · Dec 22: 13.75%Selic target · Jan 23: 13.75%Selic target · Feb 23: 13.75%Selic target · Mar 23: 13.75%Selic target · Apr 23: 13.75%Selic target · May 23: 13.75%Selic target · Jun 23: 13.75%Selic target · Jul 23: 13.75%Selic target · Aug 23: 13.25%Selic target · Sep 23: 12.75%Selic target · Oct 23: 12.75%Selic target · Nov 23: 12.25%Selic target · Dec 23: 11.75%Selic target · Jan 24: 11.75%Selic target · Feb 24: 11.25%Selic target · Mar 24: 10.75%Selic target · Apr 24: 10.75%Selic target · May 24: 10.50%Selic target · Jun 24: 10.50%Selic target · Jul 24: 10.50%Selic target · Aug 24: 10.50%Selic target · Sep 24: 10.75%Selic target · Oct 24: 10.75%Selic target · Nov 24: 11.25%Selic target · Dec 24: 12.25%Selic target · Jan 25: 13.25%Selic target · Feb 25: 13.25%Selic target · Mar 25: 14.25%Selic target · Apr 25: 14.25%Selic target · May 25: 14.75%Selic target · Jun 25: 15.00%Selic target · Jul 25: 15.00%Selic target · Aug 25: 15.00%Selic target · Sep 25: 15.00%Selic target · Oct 25: 15.00%Selic target · Nov 25: 15.00%Selic target · Dec 25: 15.00%Selic target · Jan 26: 15.00%Selic target · Feb 26: 15.00%Selic target · Mar 26: 14.75%Selic target · Apr 26: 14.50%Selic target · May 26: 14.50%Selic target · Jun 26: 14.25%Selic target · Jul 26: 14.25%Selic target · Aug 26: 14.00%Selic target · Sep 26: 13.75%13.75%12-month IPCA · Oct 22: 6.47%12-month IPCA · Nov 22: 5.90%12-month IPCA · Dec 22: 5.78%12-month IPCA · Jan 23: 5.77%12-month IPCA · Feb 23: 5.60%12-month IPCA · Mar 23: 4.65%12-month IPCA · Apr 23: 4.18%12-month IPCA · May 23: 3.94%12-month IPCA · Jun 23: 3.16%12-month IPCA · Jul 23: 3.99%12-month IPCA · Aug 23: 4.61%12-month IPCA · Sep 23: 5.19%12-month IPCA · Oct 23: 4.82%12-month IPCA · Nov 23: 4.68%12-month IPCA · Dec 23: 4.62%12-month IPCA · Jan 24: 4.51%12-month IPCA · Feb 24: 4.50%12-month IPCA · Mar 24: 3.93%12-month IPCA · Apr 24: 3.69%12-month IPCA · May 24: 3.93%12-month IPCA · Jun 24: 4.23%12-month IPCA · Jul 24: 4.50%12-month IPCA · Aug 24: 4.24%12-month IPCA · Sep 24: 4.42%12-month IPCA · Oct 24: 4.76%12-month IPCA · Nov 24: 4.87%12-month IPCA · Dec 24: 4.83%12-month IPCA · Jan 25: 4.56%12-month IPCA · Feb 25: 5.06%12-month IPCA · Mar 25: 5.48%12-month IPCA · Apr 25: 5.53%12-month IPCA · May 25: 5.32%12-month IPCA · Jun 25: 5.35%12-month IPCA · Jul 25: 5.23%12-month IPCA · Aug 25: 5.13%12-month IPCA · Sep 25: 5.17%12-month IPCA · Oct 25: 4.68%12-month IPCA · Nov 25: 4.46%12-month IPCA · Dec 25: 4.26%12-month IPCA · Jan 26: 4.44%12-month IPCA · Feb 26: 3.81%12-month IPCA · Mar 26: 4.14%12-month IPCA · Apr 26: 4.39%12-month IPCA · May 26: 4.72%12-month IPCA · Jun 26: 4.64%12-month IPCA · Jul 26: 4.44%12-month IPCA · Aug 26: 4.22%12-month IPCA · Sep 26: 4.58%4.58%Ex post real rate (% a year)051015Oct 22Sep 24Sep 26Ex post real rate (% a year) · Oct 22: 6.84%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Nov 22: 7.41%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Dec 22: 7.53%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jan 23: 7.54%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Feb 23: 7.72%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Mar 23: 8.69%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Apr 23: 9.18%Ex post real rate (% a year) · May 23: 9.44%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jun 23: 10.26%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jul 23: 9.38%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Aug 23: 8.26%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Sep 23: 7.19%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Oct 23: 7.57%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Nov 23: 7.23%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Dec 23: 6.81%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jan 24: 6.93%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Feb 24: 6.46%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Mar 24: 6.57%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Apr 24: 6.81%Ex post real rate (% a year) · May 24: 6.33%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jun 24: 6.02%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jul 24: 5.74%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Aug 24: 6.01%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Sep 24: 6.06%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Oct 24: 5.72%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Nov 24: 6.08%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Dec 24: 7.08%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jan 25: 8.31%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Feb 25: 7.80%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Mar 25: 8.32%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Apr 25: 8.26%Ex post real rate (% a year) · May 25: 8.95%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jun 25: 9.16%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jul 25: 9.29%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Aug 25: 9.39%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Sep 25: 9.34%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Oct 25: 9.86%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Nov 25: 10.09%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Dec 25: 10.30%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jan 26: 10.11%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Feb 26: 10.78%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Mar 26: 10.19%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Apr 26: 9.68%Ex post real rate (% a year) · May 26: 9.33%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jun 26: 9.18%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Jul 26: 9.39%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Aug 26: 9.38%Ex post real rate (% a year) · Sep 26: 8.77%8.77%Unemployment (%)46810Oct 22Sep 24Sep 26Unemployment (%) · Oct 22: 8.3%Unemployment (%) · Nov 22: 8.1%Unemployment (%) · Dec 22: 7.9%Unemployment (%) · Jan 23: 8.4%Unemployment (%) · Feb 23: 8.6%Unemployment (%) · Mar 23: 8.8%Unemployment (%) · Apr 23: 8.5%Unemployment (%) · May 23: 8.3%Unemployment (%) · Jun 23: 8.0%Unemployment (%) · Jul 23: 7.9%Unemployment (%) · Aug 23: 7.8%Unemployment (%) · Sep 23: 7.7%Unemployment (%) · Oct 23: 7.6%Unemployment (%) · Nov 23: 7.5%Unemployment (%) · Dec 23: 7.4%Unemployment (%) · Jan 24: 7.6%Unemployment (%) · Feb 24: 7.8%Unemployment (%) · Mar 24: 7.9%Unemployment (%) · Apr 24: 7.5%Unemployment (%) · May 24: 7.1%Unemployment (%) · Jun 24: 6.9%Unemployment (%) · Jul 24: 6.8%Unemployment (%) · Aug 24: 6.6%Unemployment (%) · Sep 24: 6.4%Unemployment (%) · Oct 24: 6.2%Unemployment (%) · Nov 24: 6.1%Unemployment (%) · Dec 24: 6.2%Unemployment (%) · Jan 25: 6.5%Unemployment (%) · Feb 25: 6.8%Unemployment (%) · Mar 25: 7.0%Unemployment (%) · Apr 25: 6.6%Unemployment (%) · May 25: 6.2%Unemployment (%) · Jun 25: 5.8%Unemployment (%) · Jul 25: 5.6%Unemployment (%) · Aug 25: 5.6%Unemployment (%) · Sep 25: 5.6%Unemployment (%) · Oct 25: 5.4%Unemployment (%) · Nov 25: 5.2%Unemployment (%) · Dec 25: 5.1%Unemployment (%) · Jan 26: 5.4%Unemployment (%) · Feb 26: 5.8%Unemployment (%) · Mar 26: 6.1%Unemployment (%) · Apr 26: 5.8%Unemployment (%) · May 26: 5.6%Unemployment (%) · Jun 26: 5.4%Unemployment (%) · Jul 26: 5.3%Unemployment (%) · Aug 26: 5.3%Unemployment (%) · Sep 26: 5.2%5.2%Average PTAX dollar (R$)4.55.05.56.06.5Oct 22Sep 24Sep 26Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Oct 22: R$ 5.25Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Nov 22: R$ 5.27Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Dec 22: R$ 5.24Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jan 23: R$ 5.20Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Feb 23: R$ 5.17Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Mar 23: R$ 5.21Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Apr 23: R$ 5.02Average PTAX dollar (R$) · May 23: R$ 4.98Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jun 23: R$ 4.85Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jul 23: R$ 4.80Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Aug 23: R$ 4.90Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Sep 23: R$ 4.94Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Oct 23: R$ 5.06Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Nov 23: R$ 4.90Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Dec 23: R$ 4.90Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jan 24: R$ 4.91Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Feb 24: R$ 4.96Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Mar 24: R$ 4.98Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Apr 24: R$ 5.13Average PTAX dollar (R$) · May 24: R$ 5.13Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jun 24: R$ 5.39Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jul 24: R$ 5.54Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Aug 24: R$ 5.55Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Sep 24: R$ 5.54Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Oct 24: R$ 5.62Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Nov 24: R$ 5.81Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Dec 24: R$ 6.10Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jan 25: R$ 6.02Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Feb 25: R$ 5.77Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Mar 25: R$ 5.75Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Apr 25: R$ 5.78Average PTAX dollar (R$) · May 25: R$ 5.67Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jun 25: R$ 5.55Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jul 25: R$ 5.53Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Aug 25: R$ 5.45Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Sep 25: R$ 5.37Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Oct 25: R$ 5.39Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Nov 25: R$ 5.34Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Dec 25: R$ 5.45Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jan 26: R$ 5.34Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Feb 26: R$ 5.20Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Mar 26: R$ 5.23Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Apr 26: R$ 5.03Average PTAX dollar (R$) · May 26: R$ 4.98Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jun 26: R$ 5.13Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Jul 26: R$ 5.11Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Aug 26: R$ 5.15Average PTAX dollar (R$) · Sep 26: R$ 5.14R$ 5.14Selic target12-month IPCASource: Central Bank of Brazil, SGS 432, 433, 1 and 24369, collected by the Evidencepublic sources engine.Reveno Evidence · evidence.reveno.com.br/en/studies/indicators-for-planning-2027/
Derived Interest rate, inflation, unemployment and the dollar, month by month Download SVG
See the table
Monthly indicators in the window, with the Selic target at month end and the monthly average dollar.
MonthSelic target (% a year)IPCA in the month (%)12-month IPCA (%)Ex post real rate (% a year)Unemployment (%)Average PTAX dollar (R$)
Sep 2613.750.824.588.775.25.1447
Aug 2614.00-0.324.229.385.35.1532
Jul 2614.250.074.449.395.35.1139
Jun 2614.250.164.649.185.45.1276
May 2614.500.584.729.335.64.9837
Apr 2614.500.674.399.685.85.0331
Mar 2614.750.884.1410.196.15.2316
Feb 2615.000.703.8110.785.85.2006
Jan 2615.000.334.4410.115.45.3380
Dec 2515.000.334.2610.305.15.4531
Nov 2515.000.184.4610.095.25.3409
Oct 2515.000.094.689.865.45.3855
Sep 2515.000.485.179.345.65.3674
Aug 2515.00-0.115.139.395.65.4469
Jul 2515.000.265.239.295.65.5285
Jun 2515.000.245.359.165.85.5471
May 2514.750.265.328.956.25.6674
Apr 2514.250.435.538.266.65.7837
Mar 2514.250.565.488.327.05.7468
Feb 2513.251.315.067.806.85.7656
Jan 2513.250.164.568.316.56.0218
Dec 2412.250.524.837.086.26.0970
Nov 2411.250.394.876.086.15.8071
Oct 2410.750.564.765.726.25.6241
Sep 2410.750.444.426.066.45.5416
Aug 2410.50-0.024.246.016.65.5526
Jul 2410.500.384.505.746.85.5420
Jun 2410.500.214.236.026.95.3890
May 2410.500.463.936.337.15.1330
Apr 2410.750.383.696.817.55.1291
Mar 2410.750.163.936.577.94.9801
Feb 2411.250.834.506.467.84.9644
Jan 2411.750.424.516.937.64.9144
Dec 2311.750.564.626.817.44.8972
Nov 2312.250.284.687.237.54.8983
Oct 2312.750.244.827.577.65.0648
Sep 2312.750.265.197.197.74.9370
Aug 2313.250.234.618.267.84.9035
Jul 2313.750.123.999.387.94.8008
Jun 2313.75-0.083.1610.268.04.8516
May 2313.750.233.949.448.34.9828
Apr 2313.750.614.189.188.55.0197
Mar 2313.750.714.658.698.85.2115
Feb 2313.750.845.607.728.65.1717
Jan 2313.750.535.777.548.45.2007
Dec 2213.750.625.787.537.95.2424
Nov 2213.750.415.907.418.15.2746
Oct 2213.750.596.476.848.35.2503

2. Inflation month by month

Monthly IPCA change over the last 24 published months. Columns below zero are months of deflation.

Fig. 2
IPCA, monthly change, last 24 monthsColumns of monthly IPCA over the last 24 months; latest value 0.82% in September 2026. Equivalent table on the page.IPCA, monthly change, last 24 monthsPercent per month, as published by the Central Bank (series 433).Evidence state: OBSERVED in Central Bank series; 12-month IPCA and real rate DERIVED.0.00.51.0IPCA · Oct 24: 0.56%Oct 24IPCA · Nov 24: 0.39%IPCA · Dec 24: 0.52%IPCA · Jan 25: 0.16%Jan 25IPCA · Feb 25: 1.31%IPCA · Mar 25: 0.56%IPCA · Apr 25: 0.43%Apr 25IPCA · May 25: 0.26%IPCA · Jun 25: 0.24%IPCA · Jul 25: 0.26%Jul 25IPCA · Aug 25: -0.11%IPCA · Sep 25: 0.48%IPCA · Oct 25: 0.09%Oct 25IPCA · Nov 25: 0.18%IPCA · Dec 25: 0.33%IPCA · Jan 26: 0.33%Jan 26IPCA · Feb 26: 0.70%IPCA · Mar 26: 0.88%IPCA · Apr 26: 0.67%Apr 26IPCA · May 26: 0.58%IPCA · Jun 26: 0.16%IPCA · Jul 26: 0.07%Jul 26IPCA · Aug 26: -0.32%IPCA · Sep 26: 0.82%Sep 260.82%Source: Central Bank of Brazil, SGS 432, 433, 1 and 24369, collected by the Evidencepublic sources engine.Reveno Evidence · evidence.reveno.com.br/en/studies/indicators-for-planning-2027/
Derived IPCA, monthly change, last 24 months Download SVG
See the table
Monthly IPCA over the last 24 months.
MonthIPCA in the month (%)
Sep 260.82
Aug 26-0.32
Jul 260.07
Jun 260.16
May 260.58
Apr 260.67
Mar 260.88
Feb 260.70
Jan 260.33
Dec 250.33
Nov 250.18
Oct 250.09
Sep 250.48
Aug 25-0.11
Jul 250.26
Jun 250.24
May 250.26
Apr 250.43
Mar 250.56
Feb 251.31
Jan 250.16
Dec 240.52
Nov 240.39
Oct 240.56

Method and limits

Series come from the Central Bank SGS, downloaded unchanged by the public sources engine, with SHA-256 checked at publication. The Selic target is the value in force on the last day of the month; the dollar is the average of the month business days; IPCA and unemployment are the published monthly values.

ipca_12m(t) = (Π for i = 0 to 11 of (1 + ipca_month(t − i) / 100) − 1) × 100
ex_post_real_rate(t) = ((1 + selic_target(t) / 100) / (1 + ipca_12m(t) / 100) − 1) × 100
average_dollar(t) = mean of the selling PTAX on business days of month t

What the data does not allow us to say

  • This is not a forecast: the study describes what has been published and does not say where the numbers go.
  • The ex post real rate uses past inflation; the real rate a company will pay depends on future inflation and on its own cost of credit, which is above the Selic.
  • The Selic target is the rate set by Copom, not the effective daily rate.
  • Unemployment is a rolling-quarter average; the month shown is the last one of the quarter.
  • A national indicator does not describe a region, a sector or a company.

Authorship and review

Written by Thiago Holtz for Reveno Evidence and published on November 6, 2026. Internal review; no independent review yet. Corrections are added here, dated, without deleting the previous version.

History

  • Version 1, November 6, 2026: publication.

About this data

What it measures
Selic target, monthly and 12-month IPCA, ex post real rate, unemployment and monthly average PTAX dollar, month by month, in the collected window.
Unit
% a year (Selic and real rate), % (IPCA and unemployment), reais per dollar.
Period
October 2022 to September 2026.
Last collected
Next scheduled collection
Not applicable: dated edition, with data up to September 2026 (daily series up to 2026-11-03). If the source revises a value within that cut, the page says so and recalculates.
Maintained by
Thiago Holtz, Reveno Evidence
Evidence state
Observed Derived
Version
Collection of 2026-11-03, public sources manifest
License
Text, figures and calculations of this study: CC BY 4.0, with attribution to Reveno Evidence and a link to this page. Source data: Central Bank of Brazil, public SGS series, under the Central Bank terms.

Download the data

  1. What is on screen

    The tables on this page as CSV, with unformatted numbers and the evidence state of every row.

  2. The full set, with a manifest

    A ZIP with every file behind the page, a README with the citation and license, and a manifest with the SHA-256 of each file.

  3. For machines

    A JSON at a stable address, with metadata, citation, tables and sources. The address does not change between publications; the content changes when the collection changes.

    • dados.json JSON · 4.2 kB · SHA-256 5d6ad12ebfb3https://evidence.reveno.com.br/estudos/indicadores-para-planejar-2027/dados.json

How to cite

Short citation for a chart or table caption, or a note

BCB (2026), processed by Reveno Evidence

Full citation with URL and access date

Reveno Evidence (2026). In September 2026, the Selic target was 13.75% and 12-month IPCA inflation 4.58%: a real rate of 8.77% a year, net of past inflation [Data set]. Evidence Studies no. 003, by Thiago Holtz. Source data: Central Bank of Brazil, SGS (series 432, 433, 1 and 24369). Collection of 2026-11-03. Retrieved November 6, 2026, from https://evidence.reveno.com.br/en/studies/indicators-for-planning-2027/

BibTeX

@misc{reveno_evidence_estudo_003,
  author = {{Reveno Evidence}},
  title = {In September 2026, the Selic target was 13.75% and 12-month IPCA inflation 4.58%: a real rate of 8.77% a year, net of past inflation},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {Reveno},
  url = {https://evidence.reveno.com.br/en/studies/indicators-for-planning-2027/},
  urldate = {2026-11-06},
  note = {Evidence Studies no. 003, by Thiago Holtz. Source data: Central Bank of Brazil, SGS (series 432, 433, 1 and 24369). Collection of 2026-11-03}
}

The access date is filled in with the date of this version of the page; replace it with the date you accessed it.

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Text, figures and calculations of this study: CC BY 4.0, with attribution to Reveno Evidence and a link to this page. Source data: Central Bank of Brazil, public SGS series, under the Central Bank terms.

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