ELECTION CASES · OFFICIAL TSE FILES
Elections in Evidence: every case with source, hash and the state of every number.
Cases are collected again by the Evidence engine and only change when an official file changes and passes validation. The comparison between cycles is derived and comes with the method caveat.
Cases
No number on this page was typed by hand: everything comes from the case manifests, with the SHA-256 of every file checked at generation. A case without a page states the reason.
| Case | Year | Rounds | Most voted in the last round | Margin (pp of valid votes) Derived | Turnout in the last round Derived | Abstention in the last round Derived | Result origin | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR-PRES-2026 | 2026 | · | LULA | 3.57 | 80.78% | 19.22% | Observed | 63 |
BR-PRES-2022 | 2022 | · | LULA | 1.80 | 79.42% | 20.58% | Derived | 2 |
Comparison between cycles
Same measure, two cycles: turnout and abstention by round, last-round margin and, by state, the change in abstention and the swing of the share of the same candidacy number between the two finalists. Everything is derived from each case's results.
Comparison 2022 x 2026
Method caveat: Comparison between cycles, not between rounds: the candidates are different, the electorate is different (registration, deaths, transfers) and rules and context changed. The difference describes the two published results; it measures no effect and does not say why anything changed.
| Measure | 2022 Derived | 2026 Derived | Difference (pp) Derived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1, Turnout (% of registered voters) | 79.05% | 78.92% | -0.14 |
| Round 1, Abstention (% of registered voters) | 20.95% | 21.08% | +0.14 |
| Round 1, Registered voters | 156,454,011 | 158,745,502 | +2,291,491 |
| Round 2, Turnout (% of registered voters) | 79.42% | 80.78% | +1.36 |
| Round 2, Abstention (% of registered voters) | 20.58% | 19.22% | -1.36 |
| Round 2, Registered voters | 156,454,011 | 158,745,502 | +2,291,491 |
Formula delta = valor_newer - valor_older, sobre snapshots do Brasil de cada caso; percentuais do eleitorado como em participação
| Year | Ahead | Margin (votes) Derived | Margin (pp) Derived |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | LULA (13) | 2,139,645 | 1.80 |
| 2026 | LULA (13) | 4,430,191 | 3.57 |
| Scope | Abstention (pp) Derived | Share of no. 13 in 2022 Derived | Share of no. 13 in 2026 Derived | Swing (pp) Derived |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC | -2.33 | 29.70% | 33.43% | +3.73 |
| AL | -3.17 | 58.68% | 60.77% | +2.09 |
| AM | -0.20 | 51.10% | 54.02% | +2.92 |
| AP | -1.70 | 48.64% | 52.88% | +4.24 |
| BA | -3.77 | 72.12% | 71.31% | -0.81 |
| CE | -3.25 | 69.97% | 68.93% | -1.04 |
| DF | +0.58 | 41.19% | 45.72% | +4.54 |
| ES | -1.07 | 41.96% | 43.63% | +1.67 |
| GO | -0.41 | 41.29% | 40.34% | -0.95 |
| MA | -3.15 | 71.14% | 69.54% | -1.59 |
| MG | -0.66 | 50.20% | 50.43% | +0.23 |
| MS | -1.11 | 40.51% | 40.40% | -0.11 |
| MT | -1.59 | 34.92% | 33.94% | -0.98 |
| PA | -2.33 | 54.75% | 55.02% | +0.27 |
| PB | -1.20 | 66.62% | 67.46% | +0.84 |
| PE | -2.13 | 66.93% | 69.20% | +2.27 |
| PI | -1.55 | 76.86% | 75.88% | -0.98 |
| PR | -0.59 | 37.60% | 37.42% | -0.18 |
| RJ | -0.62 | 43.47% | 46.90% | +3.42 |
| RN | -1.39 | 65.10% | 65.72% | +0.62 |
| RO | -2.77 | 29.34% | 30.39% | +1.05 |
| RR | +1.23 | 23.92% | 27.54% | +3.62 |
| RS | -0.15 | 43.65% | 42.16% | -1.49 |
| SC | -0.47 | 30.73% | 30.58% | -0.15 |
| SE | -3.18 | 67.21% | 69.53% | +2.33 |
| SP | -1.25 | 44.76% | 46.15% | +1.39 |
| TO | -1.16 | 51.36% | 48.63% | -2.73 |
| Abroad (ZZ) | +3.01 | 51.28% | 53.86% | +2.57 |
Formula share = 100 * votes_X / (votes_X + votes_Y) no último turno; swing_pp = share_newer - share_older; delta_abstention_pp = abstention_pct_newer - abstention_pct_older
The same candidacy number (the party number) was used by different people in the two cycles: the swing compares the number, not the person.
How to cite
To cite the index and the comparison between cycles. Each case has its own reference at the end of its page.
Short citation for a chart or table caption, or a note
TSE (2022, 2026), processed by Reveno Evidence
Full citation with URL and access date
Reveno Evidence (2026). Reveno Evidence election cases: results, turnout and comparison between cycles [Data set]. Source data: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), latest collection on 2026-11-03 (UTC). SHA-256 manifests: BR-PRES-2022 9bf8dbdc34a88f3d3678f433ca3ad4500c4e2a17a5203d6a49d628b0cb6910d4; BR-PRES-2026 890aa5af22204752879a7d89e3612e93c9a043f857a52a78e060ec6b82c03352. Retrieved November 3, 2026, from https://evidence.reveno.com.br/en/elections/
BibTeX
@misc{reveno_evidence_eleicoes,
author = {{Reveno Evidence}},
title = {Reveno Evidence election cases: results, turnout and comparison between cycles},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Reveno},
url = {https://evidence.reveno.com.br/en/elections/},
urldate = {2026-11-03},
note = {Source data: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), latest collection on 2026-11-03 (UTC). SHA-256 manifests: BR-PRES-2022 9bf8dbdc34a88f3d3678f433ca3ad4500c4e2a17a5203d6a49d628b0cb6910d4; BR-PRES-2026 890aa5af22204752879a7d89e3612e93c9a043f857a52a78e060ec6b82c03352}
}The access date is filled in with the date of this version of the page; replace it with the date you accessed it.
When you use a number from a case, cite the case page and the source file in its sources table.