QUESTION · ANSWERED BY THE EVIDENCE · BR-PRES-2026
How does Brazil's 2026 presidential election compare with 2022?
In the second round, abstention was 19.22% of registered voters in 2026 and 20.58% in 2022 (1.36 percentage point lower in 2026). The lead of the first over the second candidate was 3.57 points of valid votes in 2026 and 1.80 in 2022. The comparison describes the two published results; it measures no effect.
State: DerivedCase BR-PRES-2026
Short answer
Derived
In the second round, abstention was 19.22% of registered voters in 2026 and 20.58% in 2022 (1.36 percentage point lower in 2026). The lead of the first over the second candidate was 3.57 points of valid votes in 2026 and 1.80 in 2022. The comparison describes the two published results; it measures no effect.
Method caveat
Comparison between cycles, not between rounds: the candidates are different, the electorate is different and rules and context changed. The difference describes the two published results; it measures no effect and does not say why anything changed.
Proof chain
In favour (4)
Derived result
Resultado do Brasil, 1º turno (BR-PRES-2022)
- Derived
dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544· cdn.tse.jus.br · SHA-2568df047e326cb03289d2f7d17daefc729892b519eb2c78aff33b9bc8c78169426
- Derived
Observed result
Resultado do Brasil, 1º turno (BR-PRES-2026)
- Observed
tse-6257-br-u· resultados.tse.jus.br · SHA-2562866703eb4fc0ad6f17f0e081a00ab1175490b0786325e700cff1d8b40d25bca
- Observed
Derived result
Resultado do Brasil, 2º turno (BR-PRES-2022)
- Derived
dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000545· cdn.tse.jus.br · SHA-256b10c3c8ce251a70b45732ef2c7da23642374a73bf4013edf6bbc5d8cc92b8cbe
- Derived
Observed result
Resultado do Brasil, 2º turno (BR-PRES-2026)
- Observed
tse-6258-br-u· resultados.tse.jus.br · SHA-25667fae708b0c7977fc9847d36100c63313621bff971178c48f2da99969707c263
- Observed
Against (0)
No evidence against is recorded.
Context (0)
No context item.
What is observed, derived and unknown
- Observed
- Resultado do Brasil, 1º turno (BR-PRES-2026) in favour
- source
tse-6257-br-u - Resultado do Brasil, 2º turno (BR-PRES-2026) in favour
- source
tse-6258-br-u
read from a primary source with URL and SHA-256 checked
- Derived
- Resultado do Brasil, 1º turno (BR-PRES-2022) in favour
- source
dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544 - Resultado do Brasil, 2º turno (BR-PRES-2022) in favour
- source
dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000545
a declared calculation over observed items
- Unknown
- No open point recorded.
a legitimate absence: no collected source supports the item
What would change the answer
The answer is derived from the files below. It would change with a corrected official file (with another SHA-256); the calculation is redone on every build of this page.
Sources in the chain
| Id | URL | Downloaded at | SHA-256 | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544 | https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2022.zip | 8df047e326cb03289d2f7d17daefc729892b519eb2c78aff33b9bc8c78169426 | Derived | |
tse-6257-br-u | https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/ele2026/6257/dados/br/br-c0001-e006257-u.json | 2866703eb4fc0ad6f17f0e081a00ab1175490b0786325e700cff1d8b40d25bca | Observed | |
dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000545 | https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2022.zip | b10c3c8ce251a70b45732ef2c7da23642374a73bf4013edf6bbc5d8cc92b8cbe | Derived | |
tse-6258-br-u | https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/ele2026/6258/dados/br/br-c0001-e006258-u.json | 67fae708b0c7977fc9847d36100c63313621bff971178c48f2da99969707c263 | Observed |