“Abstention in the second round was lower than in the first”

Proof chain

Claim state: Confirmed CONFIRMED · 1 in favour · 0 against · 0 context

In favour (1)

1. Derived calculation

   Cálculo: abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1

   Derived evidence from a primary source (tse-6257-br-u), with URL, method declared, no observation date. No other evidence on the same side. No conflict recorded.

   Formula abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1

   Calculated value {"abstention_pct_t1":21.0836,"abstention_pct_t2":19.2188,"fell":true}

   • Observed Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 1º turno · tse-6257-br-u
   • Observed Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 2º turno · tse-6258-br-u
   • Observed tse-6257-br-u · resultados.tse.jus.br · SHA-256 2866703eb4fc0ad6f17f0e081a00ab1175490b0786325e700cff1d8b40d25bca
   • Observed tse-6258-br-u · resultados.tse.jus.br · SHA-256 67fae708b0c7977fc9847d36100c63313621bff971178c48f2da99969707c263
   Confidence factors (no aggregate score)

   Source type

   official_results_file

   Primary or secondary

   primary

   Authority

   TSE

   Method

   cálculo determinístico sobre itens observados

   Traceability

   source_url_only

   Independence

   single_evidence_on_this_side

   Freshness

   unknown

   Reproducibility

   formula_declared

   Corroboration

   0 on the same side, 0 distinct source(s)

   Conflicts

   none recorded

Against (0)

No evidence against is recorded.

Context (0)

No context item.

Ledger rationale (Portuguese): Derivado de dois snapshots observados: abstenção 21.0836% no 1º turno e 19.2188% no 2º. A variação é DERIVED; a causa não está estabelecida.

What is observed, derived and unknown

Observed

• Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 1º turno
• Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 2º turno
• source tse-6257-br-u
• source tse-6258-br-u

read from a primary source with URL and SHA-256 checked

Derived

• Cálculo: abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1 in favour

a declared calculation over observed items

Unknown

• No evidence against is recorded. The absence of a contrary item confirms nothing by itself: confirmation comes from the evidence in favour.
• "Cálculo: abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1" is a calculation: it has no observation date of its own; its inputs do.

a legitimate absence: no collected source supports the item

What would change the state

It is already confirmed by the evidence in favour. The state would change if the TSE published a corrected file (with another SHA-256) with a different result, or if observed evidence against entered the chain; today 0 item(s) against are recorded.

Sources in the chain

See also

• Did abstention fall between the first and second rounds of 2026?
• Full ledger of case BR-PRES-2026