CLAIM · BR-PRES-2022

“Abstention in the second round was lower than in the first”

Confirmed. There is observed or derived evidence in favour, linked to the claim, and no observed evidence against it is recorded.

State: Confirmed1 in favour · 0 against · 0 contextCase BR-PRES-2022

Proof chain

Claim state: Confirmed CONFIRMED · 1 in favour · 0 against · 0 context

Proof chain: the claim on top; below, every item in favour, against and of context, with state, source and hash. The full text follows.

In favour (1)

Derived calculation
Cálculo: abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1
Derived evidence from a primary source (dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544), with URL, method declared, no observation date. No other evidence on the same side. No conflict recorded.
Formula abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1
Calculated value {"abstention_pct_t1":20.9461,"abstention_pct_t2":20.5815,"fell":true}
- Derived Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 1º turno · dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544
- Derived Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 2º turno · dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000545
- Derived dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544 · cdn.tse.jus.br · SHA-256 8df047e326cb03289d2f7d17daefc729892b519eb2c78aff33b9bc8c78169426
- Derived dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000545 · cdn.tse.jus.br · SHA-256 b10c3c8ce251a70b45732ef2c7da23642374a73bf4013edf6bbc5d8cc92b8cbe
Confidence factors (no aggregate score)
Source type
agregado_dados_abertos
Primary or secondary
primary
Authority
TSE
Method
cálculo determinístico sobre itens observados
Traceability
source_url_only
Independence
single_evidence_on_this_side
Freshness
unknown
Reproducibility
formula_declared
Corroboration
0 on the same side, 0 distinct source(s)
Conflicts
none recorded

Against (0)

No evidence against is recorded.

Context (0)

No context item.

Ledger rationale (Portuguese): Derivado de dois snapshots observados: abstenção 20.9461% no 1º turno e 20.5815% no 2º. A variação é DERIVED; a causa não está estabelecida.

What is observed, derived and unknown

Observed: Nothing in this chain.
read from a primary source with URL and SHA-256 checked
Derived: Cálculo: abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1 in favour
Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 1º turno
Resultado consolidado do Brasil, 2º turno
source dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544
source dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000545
a declared calculation over observed items
Unknown: No evidence against is recorded. The absence of a contrary item confirms nothing by itself: confirmation comes from the evidence in favour.
"Cálculo: abstention_pct = 100 * abstention / electorate; fell = abstention_pct_t2 < abstention_pct_t1" is a calculation: it has no observation date of its own; its inputs do.
a legitimate absence: no collected source supports the item

What would change the state

It is already confirmed by the evidence in favour. The state would change if the TSE published a corrected file (with another SHA-256) with a different result, or if observed evidence against entered the chain; today 0 item(s) against are recorded.

Sources in the chain

Official files cited in this chain, with SHA-256 checked when the page was generated.
Id	URL	Downloaded at	SHA-256	State
`dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000544`	https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2022.zip	2026-11-03	`8df047e326cb03289d2f7d17daefc729892b519eb2c78aff33b9bc8c78169426`	Derived
`dadosabertos-2022-agregado-e000545`	https://cdn.tse.jus.br/estatistica/sead/odsele/votacao_candidato_munzona/votacao_candidato_munzona_2022.zip	2026-11-03	`b10c3c8ce251a70b45732ef2c7da23642374a73bf4013edf6bbc5d8cc92b8cbe`	Derived